Horn of Africa at the Crossroads

The workshop, entitled ‘Horn of Africa at the Crossroads’, sheds light on the current socio-economic, political and security changes taking place in the Horn of Africa. 

This report is the outcome of a workshop organised by the Africa Foundation in collaboration with Turkey’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Turkish International Cooperation and Development Agency (TİKA) in Ankara. The workshop, entitled ‘Horn of Africa at the Crossroads’, sheds light on the current socio-economic, political and security changes taking place in the Horn of Africa. For decades, the peninsula has comprised a confusing mixture of political and economic systems, ranging from failed states to isolationism, rentierism and development based on authoritarian dictate. In this circumstance, relations between and within states have been uneasy at best, influenced by border conflicts, ethnic tensions and fierce competition for power. Since the rise of the new Ethiopian prime minister, Abiy Ahmed, new reforms have been introduced in the Horn. However, ethnic tensions are still on the rise and the stakes are high with elections to due next year. The prime minister faces a da- unting task of stopping ethnic tensions from spiralling out of control. Uncertainty looms on the extent to which Ahmed’s transformative policies can drive meaningful changes in Ethiopia, in the relationships among the Horn countries and beyond.

Some analysts welcomed these changes and their possible spillover effects on easing tensions in the region, whereas others insisted that the results and outcomes of such changes have yet to be determined. This report proffers the views expressed by political analysts, diplomats and academicians from the Horn of Africa who took part in the workshop. It examines the political, socio-economic and security reforms currently implemented in the region, evaluates the roles played by regional and global actors and develop future projections for the region.